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SOME ASPECTS OF MEASURING IMPACT OF RURAL ROADS IN INDIA

A. C. Sarna (Dr.), Scientist
P. S. Shetty, Scientist
D. Mukhopadhyay (DR.), Scientist
Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi

ABSTRACT

The paper purports to deal with some of the issues relating to the provision of rural roads. The first is concerned with general aspects of rural roads and it emphasises the need for viewing the importance of roads in true perspective, as it is important to be aware to limitations of the road links in the absence of a variety of complementary inputs as well as the resource base of the connected villages. In the second part of the paper three different ways of assessing the impact of providing rural roads is dealt with. One of the methods pertains to "Before and After" Study, while the second one relates to the comparative analysis of two sets of villages which are almost identical in all aspects except with regard to the provision/absence of rural road links. The third method is also in the context of comparable situations and it adopts unit values of parameters for comparing the diverse villages. For this purpose, it is pointed out that the assessment of impact of rural roads needs to be carried out over three distinct time periods, namely the short term, the intermediate stage and the long term which are discussed in the paper.

ntroduction

About 75% of India's 68 crore population is estimated to have been housed in about 5.76 lakh villages spread all over the country. Since other forms of transport such as railways, waterways, airways, ropeways are hardly in a position to penetrate every nook and corner of the country in an affordable manner, the major burden of providing accessibility to the far flung villages has fallen mainly on roads. In fact the roads are ideally suited to act as both the main and the feeder systems through an hierarchical order of categorisation. The role that the rural roads play in facilitating the speedy movement of men and materials is not only crucial, but it has far reaching effects in agricultural as well as in all the other spheres of rural life.

Only about 45% of Indian villages are stated to have been provided with all weather and fair weather roads, as noted by National Transport Policy Committee¹ (N.T.P.C.) in 1980. The vast majority of the villages deprived of road links happen to be those whose population is less than 1000 per settlement. N.T.P.C. has estimated that at 1978 level of prices, a sum of 11,000 crores of rupees is required to provide road links to all the villages and the estimated road length is about 8 lakh kms.

The large deficiency in providing connectivity to the rural villages is undoubtedly due to paucity of funds. The fact that the prior claims for the available meagre resources by other sectors of the economy aggravate the situation further, is quite evident from the falling share in the allocation of total plan expenditure on roads in all the successive Five Year Plans. In view of the continuing trend of shortfall in the availability of funds, the provision of rural roads needs to be guided as far as possible by selective and viable criterion. This naturally calls for devising of certain ways and means of assessing the impact of rural roads.

Influence and Limitation of Roads

General

Notwithstanding the fact that the roads act as the harbingers of multi-facted economic growth and social changes in rural area, the role that they play needs to be understood in proper perspective. The provision of roads is only a first step - a means-and not an end in itself. Roads by themselves can hardly ensure effective changes in the well being of the rural people. Their role though pivotal, is mainly of enabling character. They need complimentary steps which involve making availability of labour, skill, technical know how, encouragement of enterprise, capital/credit, better implements and seeds, canal/well irrigation apart from educational, medical, shopping and marketing facilities. Without these essential inputs as well as the actual or the right track cannot automatically take the villages on the right track to prosperity and thereby ensure the desired changes.

If the provision of roads is the sole factor of economic growth and social changes, all the villages situated along the fair weather roads in general and National/State Highways in particular should have been riding the crest of prosperity. However, many, if not all, such villages have fallen on the wayside and continue to remain in the shadow of relative neglect. This only proves that a road is not a panacea, but only a precursor of growth.

State of Villages without Road Links

If any proof is required to show that the provision of a road link is only a first step and not a fungal goal, the history has ample evidence to prove that even with out roads, the villagers in ancient times did survive and the village economy did function, though in a subsistence and self-reliant manner. Even now it is observed that the normal agricultural operations including the sale of marketable surpluses and the purchases of the necessary inputs, besides the movement of persons, do take place into he villages which are deprived of requisite road links. This is particularly conspicuous in the villages situated in Indo-Genetic plains of Haryana where only a microscopic number of villages or satellite villages known as Dhinis/Dheras remain unconnected to the otherwise well-knit good rural road network system. The range of distances that separate these villages/ village extensions from the nearest all weather roads varies from about 1 km to 5 kms.

In such rurral settlements as referred to above, people are still able to overcome the need for the misisng road links by resoritng to the use of certain types of vehicular modes such as tractors and bicycles to the maximum extent and bullock carts and motor cycles to a lesser dgree. These versatile vehicular modes, particularly degree. These versatile vehicular modes, particularly the first two, are capable of playing even on rough/slushy and/or narrow tracts which are commonly provided by way of 'Consolidation Paths'. Thus, in a way, thesse modes of transport succeed in obviating the need for, and minimising the importance of, the rural road links.

Consequently the per unit output of agricultural produce in such village extensions does not appear to lag behind what is produced in the villages which enjoy the benefit of road linkage. The principal reason for this apparent anamoly is the resource base-both in abundance and quality - of the unconnected village extensions and which in no way differs from that of the villages that were linked with roads.

Importance of Roads in Proper Perspective

What is referred to above in paras 2.1 and 2.2 does not mean that the people of the unconnected vilalge extensions are in favour of doing away with the road links altogether. In fact they do crave for roads and their intense desire for raod links is as much to ensure a dependable link which can be traversed with ease, economy, convenience and comfort, as it is to overcome their psychological feelings about the missing road links, of which they think they have become the victims unwittingly.

Thus it needs to be stressed that while the roads as a form of transport does mobilise men and materials and helps in the re-location of production and the distribution bases, besides providing a means of communication between them, it should not be construed as the sole agent of growth. The precise role of complementary factors and the resource base are often overlooked while imputing undue importance to the roads. It is only with the aid of complimentary inputs, besides the resources base of the villages, that the provision of road links succeeds in bringing about switch over from the usual food crops lucrative cash crops particularly to vegetables cultivation, apart from commercialisation of dairy and poultry products on a bigger scale, thereby boosting the income of agriculturists. This apart, there is the direct benefit of improved transport facility which is reflected in:

  • duced vehicle operating cost, comprising savings in fuel consumption, wear and tear of spare parts and tyres;
  • reduced journey time and increased comfort to travellers and less damage to perishable and fragile goods; and
  • interaction with outside areas due to increased mobility of people thorugh the exposure to new modes of travel including the possiblity of better public bus transport and the consequent changes in several spheres leading to enhanced quality of rural life.

These benefits-both and associated due to the provision of road links are relatively more in the case of inhospitable terrains and the remotely connected vilalges where the distance of missing road links is generally more than 5 to 6 kms, and to that extent the distance acts more assertively. In these instances, the existence or otherwise of a road link does make or mar the well being of the villagers. Here even the use of the versatile vehicles like tractors and bicycles may prove to be of little avail due to the uneconomic cost and the difficulty of operating them in overcoming the handicap of missing road links because of the unduly long distance and the nature of terrain.

Problems and Prospects of Providing Rural Road

The general deficiency in the provision of road links to the large number of villages in India can be traced to the following factors inherent in the rural set up:

  • diverse and difficult nature of terrain;
  • large number and scattered nature of villages over a vast geographical spread;
  • low population size of individual village;
  • dominant nature of agricultural activities and lack of non-agricultural pursuits;
  • low level of vehicle ownership and negligible volume of traffic generated in rural areas; and
  • problem of acquisition of land for road construction and the litigation involved in the process.

All but three - first two and the last one - of the above mentioned factors can in fact be regarded as both the causes and the effects of absence/provision of the rural road links. The vicious circle of their cause-effect relationship can be broken only by launching a crash programme of rural road construction and by fostering rapid growth in the mother vehicle ownership and usage.

As a matter of fact, the current boom in both the production and competitive sale of fuel-efficient new generation of light commercial vehicles as well as two-wheelers is bound to increase progressively the auto-mobile ownership and their utilisation in the heart of rural regions. This together with growing tractorisation of agricultural operations will have all-round beneficial effects. Firstly, such a trend will lead to fuller utilisation of existing network of rural roads which at present generally remains starved of motor vehicular traffic. Secondly, it will raise the level of contributions to the coffers of Central, State and Local Governments by way of a variety of direct and indirect taxes levied on motor vehicles as well as on fuel. This, in turn, will mean an automatic increase in the outlays for the construction and maintenance of roads, since a fixed proportion of taxes on petroleum products in earmarked exclusively for the development of the roads in India.

A further consequence of such a trend will be the vigorous activisation of slumbering rural regions through increased mobility and the resultant rise in the employment level in the non-agricultural sectors. These apart, the main agricultural operations will also receive their share of benefits as a result of changes in traffic pattern on rural roads due to steadily increasing ownership and usage of motor vehicles.

The final outcome of all such development will be the higher allocation of funds for the provision of roads on a scale which is likely to be much larger than what it has been hitherto.

A Systems Approach to Measure the Impact of Rural Roads

Owing to the paucity of funds, the programme of rural road construction needs to be undertaken on a selective and viable basis, since the resources to be utilised for this purpose have to yield an optimal return on investment. Even if it is absolutely not necessary to formulate rural road programme solely on the basis of economic viability, all the same an assessment of impact of rural roads is called for, in order to priorities and select the village through an appropriate method to economic rating. The need for this is all the more so, in view of the numerous inherent inhibiting factors cited in Para 3.

One way of carrying out such studies is through 'Before and After Method'. However, this method involves a long gestation period, for, it takes more than 8 to 10 years to net the significant socio-economic changes after a village is hooked to the nearest all weather road. Since very few studies can afford to wait for such a long period of time to obtain the data on after effects of fruitful road link, it is advisable to resort to another method.

The second method is a study in comparison which relies on contrasting the state of economy of a village which is without a road link with that of a comparable nearby village of similar nature but which was provided with a road link earlier. The criterion of similarity between the two counter-part villages stipulates that the population size, age group and sex ratio should be nearly same and so should be the type of cultivable area and size of land holdings etc. Such a comparative study of two villages can be undertaken with the aid of a set of demographic and other economic indicators.

The third method is a generalised version of the second method which will also compare the two situations, but in terms of unit values like 'per person' and 'per acre'. This recourse needs to be taken in such cases where the villages identical in all respects do not exist. The third method is discussed in detail in this paper.

As there exist complex relationships between each of the aspects relating to impact of roads, it is difficult to single out the contributions made by the provision of a road link. Moreover, there are other significant factors which are responsible for the growth or decline of village economy, and travel rate, etc. For example quality, quantity and variety of crop yield at any village is dependent upon at least ten district factors, one of which depends upon road link. The remaining factors are related to the following broad aspects which are by no means exhaustive and are listed below, not necessarily according to the order or their importance:

  • Nature of soil;
  • Climatic conditions
  • Irrigation facilities;
  • The basis of ownership and the size of land holdings;
  • Type of manpower and extent of mechanisation;
  • Usage of manure, fertilizer and pesticides;
  • Distance from marketing centre;
  • Adequate facilities for quick transportation and storage; and
  • Governmental help by way of minimum support price and supply of timely and quality inputs.

Therefore, before proceeding further, it is required to identify precisely the related parameters which pertain mostly to the road condition. These are:

  • average number of person trips per head year by different modes; and
  • average number of goods carrying trips per acre of different types of agricultural land per year by various modes.

Having identified the parameters, the impact of all weather road link can be measured by converting them to travel time and cost of operation of vehicle for both types of situations and then obtain the differences.

Sequence of Activities

A flow chart showing system approach for impact estimation of rural roads is presented in Fig. 1 and the procedure is discussed briefly as under:

Box 1

Socio-economic and travel data are to be collected from the field surveys. The method for the collection of required data would depend upon various circumstances and availability of resources. Data may be obtained from the Revenue Department, Village headman and also through house-hold survey in the selected village on a sample basis and/or O&D survey cum traffic volume count on the link roads.

Box 1

Socio-economic and travel data are to be collected from the field surveys. The method for the collection of required data would depend upon various circumstances and availability of resources. Data may be obtained from the Revenue Department, Village headman and also through house-hold survey in the selected village on a sample basis and/or O&D survey cum traffic volume count on the link roads.

Social aspects of general nature such as average family size, land holding per person, adult-children ratio, literacy rate, electricity usage, employment in sectors other than agriculture, medical facility, rate of implementation of social development programmes etc. may also be incorporated.

Box 2

Person and trip rates can be calculated as explained earlier.

Box 3

It is important to obtain the model split for both passenger and goods trips. To elaborate, say, 400 person trips may be split in the following way: 250 by walk, 100 by bicycles, 25 by bullock carts and 25 by other automobiles and so on. Person trips wherever applicable can be converted into vehicle trips by dividing them with average occupancy factor of the respective vehicle modes. This modal split can be obtained either directly through observations or by comparison. This is required for futher application and is explained in the sequel.

Box 4

All above mentioned trips thus can be converted into their respective travel time and cost (using the values obtained in Box 5) for a given type of road surface.

Box 5

Travel time and operational cost of each mode per kilometer of a given type of road link (earthen road or metalled road or W.B.M. surface road) can be obtained either through separate experiment or by using the findings of Road User Cost Survey of India² and these values are applied to Box 4.

Box 6

At this juncture, a policy decision with regard to further analysis needs to be taken. Three possibilities can be thought of for this purpose and they are as follows:

Case A

No change either in average trip rate per person per year or in the modal split. Same holds good for goods trips also. This implies arriving at the situation which will prevail immediately after the construction of an all weather road. The immediate impact which can be possibly measured is the net gain in travel time and cost of operationSocial aspects of general nature such as average family size, land holding per person, adult-children ratio, literacy rate, electricity usage, employment in sectors other than agriculture, medical facility, rate of implementation of social development programmes etc. may also be incorporated.

Box 2

Person and trip rates can be calculated as explained earlier.

Box 3

It is important to obtain the model split for both passenger and goods trips. To elaborate, say, 400 person trips may be split in the following way: 250 by walk, 100 by bicycles, 25 by bullock carts and 25 by other automobiles and so on. Person trips wherever applicable can be converted into vehicle trips by dividing them with average occupancy factor of the respective vehicle modes. This modal split can be obtained either directly through observations or by comparison. This is required for futher application and is explained in the sequel.

Box 4

All above mentioned trips thus can be converted into their respective travel time and cost (using the values obtained in Box 5) for a given type of road surface.

Box 5

Travel time and operational cost of each mode per kilometer of a given type of road link (earthen road or metalled road or W.B.M. surface road) can be obtained either through separate experiment or by using the findings of Road User Cost Survey of India² and these values are applied to Box 4.

Box 6

At this juncture, a policy decision with regard to further analysis needs to be taken. Three possibilities can be thought of for this purpose and they are as follows:

Case A

No change either in average trip rate per person per year or in the modal split. Same holds good for goods trips also. This implies arriving at the situation which will prevail immediately after the construction of an all weather road. The immediate impact which can be possibly measured is the net gain in travel time and cost of operation of vehicles. This situation may continue for one year or more till new regular bus transport services are provided or till a significant rise in vehicle-ownership rate is noticed. In this case, flow of the procedure is directed to Box 4.

Case B

A change in modal split only is envisaged here. This situation will occur after some time, say from two to five years. it is a transition period, when walk trips will be shifted to bicycles as well as to autos and/or buses (if provided), while bullock cart trips will be shifted to tractors or trucks and tempos. This modal split can be obtained by comparing the modal split of other villages linked before at least two years but not beyond five years. In this case, flow of the procedure is directed to Box 3.

Case C

A change in average person trip rate per year and goods trip per acre per year is anticipated. This is a situation where the system is shifting from transitional stage to permanent or stable state. This will happen after 5 years when the advantage of having all weather road link will reach the socio-economic strata of the village. A change in travel pattern as well as growth in average trip rate per person is anticipated. Non agricultural resident employment will also increase due to better mobility. Educational and other activities will also flourish.

These can be obtained by comparing the average person trip rate and goods trip rate per acre per year of nearby village connected with a road link at least five years before. In this case the flow is directed towards Box 2.

Box 7

With the conversion of the person and goods trips to travel time and cost in respect of both the situations after giving due consideration to time of construction, etc. the difference in travel time and cost can be obtained.

Box 8

A method of analysis of variance can than be employed to test if the differences are due to all weather road link or due to error while applying 'D' test at appropriate significance levels. Mean and standard deviation of the difference of above mentioned parameters as well as least significant difference in the parameters can be obtained.

The above steps complete the process outlined in Fig. 1

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Once the differences in cost due to the provision of a road are available in respect of person as well as goods trips, the final step is to carry out the cost-benefit analysis. This can be done by obtaining the difference in cost of travel (for goods and persons) and construction cost for different lengths of roads linking the villages with the nearest point of metalled road. If both are plotted against the distance relationship such as depicted in Fig. 2 will result. The shaded area strip between the lines in Fig. 2 is the benefit which is higher when the distance of the linking road is longer.

By assuming the average life of a metalled road as say ten years, the average cost of construction per year can be obtained and plotted which will be a straight line parallel to x axis as shown in Fig 3. The differences in the cost of travel for each year can be obtained from at least three conditions (A, B and C) by interpolation and if they are plotted they will be possibly on a straight line with a positive slope. The intercept on y axis of this line could be below the cost line could be below the cost line. The shaded will give a compete picture of the benefits available to the inhabitants of the village.

Conclusions

Deficiency in the provision of rural roads is adversely affecting the accessibility to vast number of villages in India. In the context of prevailing resources crunch, it is imperative to evolve an order of priority based on economic justification of providing road links to unconnected villages.

While providing economic justification for the provision of rural road links, it is advisable to know the precise role of roads and also the limitations. For, the provision of a road link is only a first step which ought to be followed up by supplementary measures, so that the resources base of the unconnected village can be fully utilised once the road link is provided.

The direct way of assessing the impact of rural roads is through 'Before and After Study'. Since this approach involves relatively a long term study, the second method of comparative study of two sets of villages which are almost identical in every respect except with reference to the absence of road link in one set of villages and its presence in the other set is suggested.

The expected economic effects are to be assessed in terms of reduced travel time and reduction in cost of vehicle operation in respect of all the persons as well as goods trips to an d from the two sets of comparable villages. The measurement of direct economic changes needs to be carried out over three distinct phases, as the pace of economic progress will be different under the different phases.

Of the three phases, the first one is known as the short term which implies a period of 2 years from the time of completion of road link. During the short term, there will be only marginal changes with respect to trip rate and modal split. The second phase called intermediate stage refers to a period from 2 to 5 years from the data of completion of road link. In this period only transitionary changes are expected in the context of trip rates and switch over from one type of vehicular mode to other. The final phase refers to a period beyond 5 years when the significant transformations in all the spheres of economic activity besides social changes are expected to take place.

It is hoped that with proper application of economic justification, it would be possible to rationally allocate sufficient funds for providing rural roads on the basis of an evolved order of priority.

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge gratefully the permission given by Director, Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi, to present this paper at the Seminar on Roads and Transport in Rural Areas, 1985.

References

  • Planning Commission, Government of India "Report of the National Transport Policy Committee", 1980.
  • Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi. "Road User Cost Study in India", Final Report 1983.
  • Swaminathan C.G., Lal N. B. and Kumar A., "A Systems Approach to Rural Road Development" Journal of Indian Roads Congress, Paper No. 347, Volume 42, Indian Roads Congress, New Delhi 1981.
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