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A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING

RURAL ROAD LENGTHS FOR MACRO & MICRO REGIONS -
CASE STUDY OF UTTAR PRADESH

S.S. Chakraborty, Executive Director
A.K. Sharma, Transport Consultant
Satyakam, Economist
Consulting Engineering Services, New Delhi

ABSTRACT

Socio-political factors coupled with rapid improvement in agricultural productivity and expansion of communication facilities have placed a high priority for improved accessibility fro rural settlements. The third road development plan (1981 - 2001), based upon a macro model has estimated the total road length for various states in the country. Road development policies and settlement density have significant impact on such estimates. The present paper compounds the experience of rural road studies and presents a simplified technique fro a quick estimate of rural road length and evolving a spatial plan at macro levels in the context of Uttar Pradesh. The model application and the observed variations in field and model estimate underscores the importance of accelerated effort fro improving the state-of-art of rural road planning.

Introduction

Evaluation and appraisal studies conducted for formulating the National Transport Policies indicate an urgent need fro improving the rural accessibility (Table 1). Further studies in this regard indicate that 30 % of the total villages in the country enjoy al all - weather accessibility. The remaining 70 % of the villages still need to be connected. The more dis-aggregate analysis of rural accessibility by settlement sizes indicate that nearly 46 % of the large villages (1500 and above) and 74 % of smaller villages (less than 1500) still need to be connected by an all-weather road.

The third road development plan (1981 - 2001) estimates that nearly 22.0 lakhs kms of rural roads would be required fro ensuring linkage of all the villages. the estimates for lower order roads are approximately twice the total road length presently existing in the country. Table 2 outlines the road length estimates for a 100 percent linkage of rural settlements in some of northern states of the country. The magnitude of change can be appreciated from the fact that a five-fold increase in total road length is envisaged for U.P. State in the nest two decades. Rapid expansion of road length is a capital intensive proposition and thus the need for a planned approach to translate the road length targets into functional plans at micro level assumes great significance.

Approach to Estimating Rural Road Length

A number of approaches for estimating the road lengths have been developed. These range from the simplified relationship evolved in the Nagpur Plan to the recently evolved macro spatial model for the Lucknow Plan. However, experience indicates that most of these models are for special use and, therefore, have limited applications. These are also rigid non-transferable and insensitive to policy level changes. During the intervening period (1946 - 1984), some more techniques and theories such as growth centres approach, graph theoretic concepts and linear programming techniques, have been experimented and used for rural road estimations. These approaches and models are still in their research stages on account of refined data inputs and would require considerable investigations and modifications before their large-scale application in the field.

Literature search has also indicated that settlement density (no. of villages/sqkm), road density (road length per sq km) and linkage levels (number of linked settlements/number of total settlements) have complex and meaningful inter-relationships. Appreciation of the relationship between them could provide a rational base for road length estimation for linking villages.

Based on these relationships in respect of data available from Uttar Pradesh, simplified relationships were developed. Consequently, the application of these relationships at micro levels enabled the road length estimations at macro and micro levels.

Table 3 provides an over-view of the existing settlement pattern, and linkage levels by size of village in the state. The analysis of the population distribution suggest that nearly 45% of the rural population of the state is residing in small settlements (less than 1000 population) and the present policy favour the linkage of large size settlements.

Linking of 3454 larger villages located in 48 districts of the state would lead to improved access for 2996 small settlements and raise the present linkage level of 0.35 to 0.41 in the state. The total road length estimated for this change in 9846 kms. The distribution of this length for identified region is given as field estimates in Table 4.

The comparisons between model and field estimates have led to the refinement of the model structure. With the simplified relationship of the model structure. With the simplified relationship for estimating the road length requirement, the need for translating the same into a function plan assumes importance. This aspect of physical planning of road length has demonstrated in the context of Basti district - a backward district of Uttar Pradesh.

Macro Region Study - Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh is one of the most populous states of the country. On economic considerations, the state ranks almost lowest in per capita income with in the country and nearly 80% of the population resides in villages. Lack of communication and poor accessibility standards are the major causes for the major causes of the economic backwardness of the state. From geographical and administrative considerations, the state is sub-divided into 55

districts (macro regions). These are re-grouped to form four regions for socio-economic development purposes (macro levels), i.e. Hill, Central, Western and Easter for coordinating and monitoring the development plans. These sub-divisions are utilised for estimating the rural road lengths from practical utility considerations.

Road density, linkage level and settlement density are inter-related and create and interesting relationship between linkage level and road density. The application of the observed relationship between linkage level and road density enabled the estimation of total road length for a micro/macro region for Uttar Pradesh for linking large size villages.

Y = 0.10 + 0.66 X, R² = 0.89

Where Y = Road Density

X = Linkage Level

A comparison of model and field estimates (Table 4) provides a good agreement. However, the variations between the model and the field estimate need further investigation and analysis for controlling the effect of density. The analysis of variations show that shilst the model and field results matched closely in respect of 50 percent of the districts where the settlement density was stable, the variations between field and model estimates increased with fluctuations in settlement densities in the remaining 50 percent of the districts.

The hypothesis that settlement density influences the road length estimates, was tested with the help of the historical data on road length and settlement density. The regression analysis indicated a negative correlation between settlement density and road length requirement per linked settlement.

Y¹ = 4.4 - 4.08 X¹

Where

Y¹ = road length per linked settlement

X¹ = settlement density

r = -0.54

Moreover, the variation in road length per lined settlement appeared to be constant in respect of the historical data and road length estimates for the presently pursued policy of linking large settlements.

The analysis (Table 5) suggests the need for adjustments of road length estimation from global models for density variations across micro regions.

The suggested adjustment factors for density variation (Table 6) and their application in the case of micro regions have provided revised road length estimates for various regions.

Table 5

Effects of density on road length requirements

SI. No. Area Density of Settlements Existing linkage level proposed linkage level Road length per linked settlement
1 Western 0.35 0.36 0.41 2.20
2 Central 0.29 0.33 0.41 3.26
3 Eastern 0.61 0.36 0.41 1.96
  Total 0.34 0.35 0.41 3.07

Table 6

Adjustment factors for settlement density in road length estimation

SI. No. Settlement Density Adjustment Factor
1 Less than 0.35 1.00
2 0.35-0.55 0.90
3 0.55-0.60 0.80
4 0.60 & above 0.70

As per this, both the degree of variation and the road length estimates exhibit a better correlation (Table 7).

Table 7

Revised estimate of road length for improved accessibility for U.P. State after adjustment for densities

Settlement density

SI. No. Region Settlement Average Density Std Deviation of settlement AV Fig. Model Estimate (km) Field Estimate (km) Percentage Variation
1 Western 0.35 0.10 3269 3002 + 08.9
2 Central 0.30 0.12 4133 3255 + 26.9
3 Eastern 0.64 0.22 2910 3589 + 21.7
  Total - - 10212 9846 + 03.7

With the availability of a simplified relationship that provides a satisfactory estimate of road lengths for micro regions, the second stage of the methodology aims at evolving the functional road plan for micro regions.

It has already been indicated that providing accessibility merely by size of settlements by population may not be very useful to heterogeneous requirements of rural settlements and approaching the problem of accessibility by settlement size do not incorporate the interaction or inter-dependency of various settlements. Hence inter-settlement movement does not only depend upon the same settlement size but also it is influenced significantly by the concentration of facilities in a settlement.

This highlights the need for integrating the road network and settlement hierarchy and translating the rural road targets into spatial development plans. The approach of integrating settlements and road network aims at arranging the settlements hierarchy and translating the rural road targets into spatial development plans. The approach of integrating settlements and road network aims at arranging the settlements in pyramidical order according to the degree of concentration of facilities. It is presumed that larger settlements would offer higher order infrastructure in respect of education, communications, administration and other sectors. Similarly, the lower order settlements with smaller catchments areas would provide lower order facilities requiring day-to-day inter-action. The levels or gradation of settlement size, service area populations, physiographic and administrative constraints. The approach of evolving a functional road plan by the above approach is demonstrated in the context of Basti district.

Micro Region Study - Basti District

Basti is one of the eastern districts of Uttar Pradesh. This district having an area of 7000 sqkm with a population of 35 lakhs, is one of the largest districts in the country. The total population of the district is distributed in 6939 villages. The distribution skewed in favour of smaller settlements. 68 percent of the total settlements (equivalent to 4072 number of settlements) are yet to be linked by all-weather roads. Density of roads in this district is 23 km/sqkm and linkage level is 32 percent as compared to 27 and 35% at the State level. This demonstrates the level of urgency for an improved rural road system. Whilst evolving the road development plan for basti, it was found that a four-tier hierarchy of settlements would be required to integrate the accessibility requirements and social infrastructure.

The identification of pyramidical order of service centres in this district was carried out on the basis of the concentration of socio-economic amenities and facilities in various settlements of the district. This approach

indicated that nearly 146 lowest order service centres would be required (Table 8/Fig. 1).

Four centres, namely, Basti, Bansi, Khalilabad and Shohratgarh would perform as first level service centres and would be supported by nine second-order centres, 40 third-order and 146 fourth- order centres.

Table 8

Characteristics of fourth level service centres

SI. No. Particulars Average Figures
1 Service Population (no.) 33,500
2 Influence Area (Sqkm) 67
3 Radius of Influence Area (Kms) 5

The identification of these centres has been done by having regard to size, service area, population and average travel distances.

The Lucknow Plan has identified the need for a hierarchial arrangement of roads. As per this arrangement, there are four categories of roads viz. National, State, District and Rural. Utilising this concept, the horizontal and vertical linkages between the various identified service centres, improved rural road system for the district is developed for 146 lowest level service centres. The proposed alignments for linking the villages have been indicated in Fig. 1.

The comparative study of the spatial road length requirements and the model estimates compare favrourably and thus the suggested alignments appear to be feasible propositions (Table 9).

Table 9

Comparative study

SI. No.

Technique of Estimation

Linkage Level %

Additional Road Length Reqd - Km

1

Model

100

2100

2

Growth Centre

100

2445

3

Variation

-

16.4%

The development of the spatial plan necessitated the need for appreciating the macro and micro economic impact of improved road system. The study of the various parameters describing economic regions reflected wide variations. However, two indicators, average

Suggestions and Recommendations

Fig 1 Proposed road network plan for Basti District

Table 10
Effect of road density on net domestic product per sq km of area

SI. No. Region Average road density km/sq km (X) Average domestic product Rs. in km/sq km (Y) Std. Deviation (X) Std. Deviation (Y) Regression Equation   Value of R²    
1 Western 22.8 2.84 4.84 0.85 Y - 0.992 + 0.081 X 0.21
2 Central 20.8 2.17 8.08 0.84 Y - 0.225 + 0.092 X 0.78
3 Eastern 24.3 2.19 8.45 0.59 Y - 0.641 + 0.063 X 0.83
4 State 22.7 2.44 7.27 0.34 Y - 0.736 + 0.063 X 0.42

house-hold income and net domestic product exhibited close relationship with road indicators (Table 10). The study of the macro level regressions indicated that firstly large scale additions of road lengths would have appreciable impact on economic development, and secondly, the macro economic impact of roads is different and varies according to the regional characteristics. This justifies the need for developing spatial plans for roads development for lowest level administrative regions.

Concluding Remarks

It is well-recognised that all planning models should be geographically transferable and susceptible to parameters that influence a pre-casted parameter. Whilst a substantial success has been achieved in imbibing these characteristics in the proposed model by only testing and moderating it for various regions, the need for further research and improvement in the recommended procedures still exists to account for the widely varying geographical characteristics. In this regard, it may be worthwhile to recommend the immediate application of the model in other districts of the country to judge the model reliability.

Rural road planning is still dependent upon a targeted approach of linking settlement of specific categories and sizes. This approach seems to be at variance with the balanced regional development approaches as settlements qualifying for additional facility inputs may not necessarily meet the accessibility standards. To overcome this difficulty, the need for evolving a rural road planning model assumes an important dimension in the overall planning process. The recommended

approach for rural road planning incorporates this flexibility and would thus be able to provide alternate road scenarios for selecting the most feasible option for road development.

A characteristic feature of the model is its simplicity in data requirements and it is capability to assess the road length requirements for various spatial sub divisions. However, the model development experience indicates the necessity for further appreciation of the complex inter-relationship between settlement density, linkage level and road length requirements.

It is well-recognised that the road development targets outlined in the third road development plan will not be accomplished in a singular effort and would thus have to fall in line with the economic development process of the country. The phasing of the road development as per the five year plans would necessarily generate the need for prioritising the road development progress. Whilst this aspect may fall beyond the present scope, the recommended model envisages that road development is a continuing activity and thus the priority for road development should be integrated with other development options within the framework of a comprehensive plan.

It is necessary to note that a strong and reliable data base is a prerequisite for evolving a rational plan. This aspect, as far as road planning at lower level is considered, is weak and has been a major limiting factor in translating the earlier planning objectives into reality at the micro levels. The recommendations based upon simple parameters would therefore provide a starting base for meaningful planning effort at the lowest level.

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